Economics of Development
Economics of Development
ISSN 1683-1942 e-ISSN 2304-6155 UDC 33
DOI: 10.63341/econ
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Modelling the impact of demographic changes on labour productivity and economic activity in Ukraine during wartime and post-war recovery

Pavlo Muskeyev*

pavlomuskeyev@hotmail.com

Received 16.04.2026, Revised 30.07.2026, Accepted 01.09.2026 Published 02.10.2026

Abstract

The aim of the study was to analyse the impact of demographic changes on Ukraine’s labour force and economic development during wartime and post-war recovery. The study was theoretical and empirical in nature and covered the period 2021-2025, whilst data from 2026 were used for certain indicators. The methodology was based on the application of statistical, comparative and scenario-based analysis of demographic and macroeconomic indicators, the calculation of an approximate labour productivity index based on real gross domestic product and the number of employees, as well as the use of a production function and a scenario-based model for decomposing economic output into labour and productivity components. The results showed that Ukraine’s population fell from 40.998 million in 2021 to a projected 32.283 million in 2026, whilst the number of births decreased from 273.8 thousand to 168.8 thousand in 2025. At the same time, the current decline in the labour force was primarily driven by external migration, war-related losses and other factors reducing the labour supply, whilst the falling birth rate poses predominantly long-term demographic risks. Following a 28.8% fall in real gross domestic product in 2022, the economy began a gradual recovery, although the pace of economic growth remained volatile. The estimated real GDP index per officially employed worker, having fallen from 100 in 2021 to 80.9 in 2022, gradually rose to 87 in 2025, though it remained 13% below the pre-war level. Scenario modelling showed that, under conditions of active technological modernisation, the real output index could rise to 118.7% of the 2025 level by 2030, whilst under a pessimistic scenario it would fall to 90.3%. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the results obtained when formulating state demographic, social and economic policies aimed at restoring the labour force, increasing labour productivity and ensuring Ukraine’s sustainable economic development


Keywords:

migration; human capital; population; gross domestic product; labour force

https://doi.org/10.63341/econ/3.2026.58

Retrieved from Volume 25, No. 3, 2026

Pages 58-71

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Suggested citation

Muskeyev, P. (2026). Modelling the impact of demographic changes on labour productivity and economic activity in Ukraine during wartime and post-war recovery. Economics of Development, 25(3), 58-71. https://doi.org/10.63341/econ/3.2026.58